📈 Prediction Markets Guide
Kalshi, Polymarket, DFS hedging, and structured probability trading — explained for operators who want the edge without the noise.
Kalshi Guide
How regulated US event contracts work — market structure, pricing, and trading mechanics.
Prediction Market Hedging
Using prediction markets + DFS insurance to structure positions with defined downside.
Kalshi vs DFS Platforms
Structural differences between event contracts and daily fantasy sports — which tool for which job.
Sports Hedging Strategy
Full system: Kalshi primary, DFS insurance, in-game trigger signals, and exit rules.
What Are Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets let traders buy and sell contracts that resolve at $1 (YES) or $0 (NO) based on whether a real-world event occurs. The price reflects the market's collective probability estimate.
Unlike traditional sportsbooks, there's no house edge baked into every line. You trade against other participants at market-clearing prices, and you can exit your position at any time before resolution.
Concept Guides
Have a specific question about prediction markets?
Text PJ — real human, San Diego. Straight answer, no pitch.